State Repression and Collective Behavior: Testing the Hypothesized U-shaped and S-shaped Relationship between the Two

• In Event: 463 - Section on Collective Behavior and Social Movements Roundtables (one-hour)
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 21. The Effects of Policing and Authoritarianism on Social Movements

Abstract

To examine the impact of Internet penetration and state repression on protest frequency, I analyze time-series data from 82 countries from 1990 to 2007. Using a multilevel, random-intercept Poisson regression, I test and find extremely weak support for the hypothesis that increased Internet penetration increases protest, and I find strong support for the hypothesis of a curvilinear relationship between repression and protest. I find that increased repression will initially decrease protest frequency but that further repression will reach a breaking point that actually increases protest frequency. This finding is important in that it bridges the conflict in the literature over whether increased repression deters or radicalizes by demonstrating that it does both.

Author

• Ryan Seebruck, University of Arizona