The “Fortuna Heuristic” and (Mis-)Perceptions of Risk among Thai Migrants

• In Event: 606 - Section on Social Psychology Roundtable Session (co-sponsored with Section on Sociology of Emotions)
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 09. Beliefs, Emotions and Memory

Abstract

A growing literature has recognized that low-skilled labor migration does not simply entail a search for better economic opportunities, but also involves a number of significant risks. Rational-choice theory would have individuals weigh the potential costs and benefits before accepting migration offers, but the extent to which migrants themselves apply such a calculated approach remains unclear. In fact, anecdotal evidence suggests that aspiring migrants often rely upon non-rational beliefs in personal luck and good fortune to guide their decision-making. This paper examines how beliefs in luck shape individuals’ risk perceptions and the willingness to accept risky migration offers among potential migrants in Thailand. Using a lab-in-the-field experiment, I show that potential migrants do not use probabilistic reasoning in evaluating risks. Instead, I find evidence that individuals’ beliefs in luck as a stable and personal characteristic, a phenomenon that I term the “fortuna heuristic,” influences their willingness to take risks in a controlled experiment. Building upon these results, I then present survey evidence illustrating that aspiring labor migrants also use this “fortuna heuristic” in deciding whether to accept a hypothetical risky job offer abroad. The results have both theoretical and practical implications for scholars and policy makers working on international migration, decision-making under risk and uncertainty, as well as those interested in how non-rational beliefs shape behavior.

Author

• Johanna Katharina Gereke, European University Institute