Do Movements Matter? The Environmental Movement’s Contingent Influence on Air Pollution Policy and Outcomes, 1940-2001

• In Event: 593 - Regular Session. Social Movements: The Emergence and Outcomes of Protest

Abstract

Studies have shown that political movements often play a contingent role in the adoption of public policy but do they have an impact on the underlying problems that motivated the movement in the first place? This study uses the air quality campaigns of the U.S. environmental movement to evaluate this question. In addition to examining the impact of these campaigns on air pollution policy and implementation, we look at the effects of movement protest and institutional advocacy tactics on annual national emissions (1940-2001) of three major air pollutants: sulfur dioxide (S02), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Using ARIMA time-series regression, we find while movement strength combined with the presence of allies in the federal government contributes slightly to stronger federal policy, protest actions produce a backlash effect on implementation funding. In contrast, the actual reduction of air pollution requires that movement pressures operate in favorable political environments. Stronger policy creates the favorable context where movement actions matter. Overall, the effects of both movement and policy are found to be highly contingent.

Authors

• Anna C. McCreery, Elevate Energy

• J. Craig Jenkins, The Ohio State University