In Vivo Experimental Study of Emergent Mobilization in Online Collective Action

• In Event: 259 - Section on Rationality and Society Paper Session. Rationality and Social Structure

Abstract

We ask why most signature campaigns attract only a handful of supporters while a few are backed by millions. Previous scholarship on mobilization has documented the importance of structural factors and movement organizing strategy as key elements in determining levels of participation. We argue that emergent phenomena that occur during the mobilization process are a significant factor in determining levels of mobilization and that they can have a major impact on the trajectory of protest. We demonstrate the significant character of these emergent processes in two field experiments involving online signature campaigns in which structural profiles, organizing strategies, and initial signatory volume are controlled. While differences in ultimate signatory support between similar petitions are as extreme as theories of critical mass and tipping points would suggest, the dynamics leading up to these arbitrary inequalities are qualitatively distinct; Growth is highly erratic with initially much less popular campaigns experiencing wholly unexpected revivals, limiting the predictability of future from past momentum to just the short run. The mechanism we identify driving these unpredictable dynamics is the unanticipated recruitment of secondary mobilizers the size of whose information networks determines the magnitude of the signatory jolt that follows their triggering. We conclude that emergent processes must be understood as a significant factor in the determining of campaign trajectories for online petitions, and conjecture that parallel
processes operate in many forms of social movement mobilization.

Authors

• Gabriela Gonzalez, State University of New York-Stony Brook

• Juhi Tyagi, State University of New York-Stony Brook

• Afife Idil Akin, State University of New York-Stony Brook

• Fernanda Raquel Page Poma, State University of New York-Stony Brook

• Arnout van de Rijt, State University of New York-Stony Brook

• Michael Schwartz, State University of New York-Stony Brook