Could Fertility Patterns Act as a Driver of Global Migration?

• In Event: 469 - Section on International Migration Roundtables (one-hour)
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 03. Migration Theory

Abstract

By 2012, the global population of migrants had increased to more than 230 million, although the number of new immigrants relocating in any given year has been relative stable for the past twenty years. The process of migration has become more complex, with an increasing number of countries involved in migration systems, however the largest flows are still to highly developed nations. In this paper, I will demonstrate how migration flows are sensitive to macro-level demographic processes that characterize the receiving countries. While migration is an individual-level decision, migration decisions are socially structured and sensitive to macro-level conditions. Previous literature has focused on economic drivers of migration, and not fully investigated the demographic processes that impact migration. Using a harmonized global database of international migration flows I will model the relationship between fertility and migration flows using an expanded gravity model. TFR is a robust indicator of fertility and stage in the demographic process. Almost half of the migration flows between countries occur from high fertility countries to low fertility countries. Both the absolute levels of TFR and relative levels of TFR are significantly associated with migration rates between countries. High fertility in sending countries generally increases migration, and high fertility in receiving countries is also associated with increased migration, however the largest flows occur from a high TFR country to a low TFR country. Migrants may seek countries that have lower fertility than their home country because low fertility may signal modernization and attract migrants to these areas.

Author

• Adriana Marie Reyes, Pennsylvania State University