Rethinking Risk Factors of Modern Genocide

• In Event: 252 - Section on Comparative-Historical Sociology Paper Session. Can Comparative Historical Sociology Save the World? (3) Genocide

Abstract

This article assesses the factors under which genocide is possible. Drawing upon previous research and the early warning framework used by the United Nations, it employs an event history analysis of over 150 countries between 1955 and 2005. Although analyses support some existing findings, such as the role of an exclusionary ideology, important differences are also found. First, while existing research and the UN Framework focus on how the type of government influences the onset of genocide, this article finds that controls on the executive power are a more precise predictor. Second, while the existing framework emphasizes general upheaval, this article disaggregates the type of upheaval. Contrary to popular perceptions and recent theories, it finds that economic upheavals and strains, such as population pressure or resource scarcity, are not associated with the onset of genocide. Instead, political upheavals that directly threaten the government—including civil wars, revolutions, coups, and assassinations—have the strongest effect on its onset. Lastly, this article examines whether and how risk factors of genocide change once political upheaval has taken place, illustrating that many remain similar but that others, such as the well-established association between trade openness and lower odds of genocide, no longer hold once a country plunges into civil war or related violence. Taken together, these results indicate that exclusionary ideologies, unchecked executive power, and political upheavals that directly threaten the government are the key risk factors of genocide.

Author

• Hollie Nyseth Brehm, The Ohio State University