The Evolution of Within- and Cross-Country Differences in the Transition to Adulthood: A New Perspective

• In Event: 567 - Section on Aging and the Life Course Paper Session. Cross-National Comparisons of Life Course Transitions

Abstract

Theories as well as empirical studies of demographic change have stressed the emergence of a new pattern of transition to adulthood. Using a newly constructed dataset that combines large cross-national samples from the Genders and Generations as well as the European Social Survey we analyze the development of three key transitions, the leaving of the parental home, the first marriage and the arrival of the first child and document their development over time. Starting from a set of hypotheses derived from the literature on the second demographic transition, which theorizes that a new typical pathway, characterized by late, protracted and complex transitions is emerging and consistently spreading we look at whether convergence towards such a pattern, within and between countries can indeed be observed. Particular attention is paid to the question of convergence by proposing a set of new methods for more precisely assessing whether it can be observed and by linking patterns of individual change within countries to those happening between countries. While observed trends are consistent with many of the predictions of the second demographic transition, we conclude that the idea of convergence towards a newly emerging ideal pathway to adulthood has to be discarded. Instead the emergence of a greater set of possibilities in how to transit towards adulthood tends to consistently augment individual and cross-country differences in lifecourse patterns. Particular attention is paid to how demographic changes play out differently by gender and
institutional regimes.

Authors

• Sander Wagner, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

• Olivier Thevenon, INED