15. Growing Pains or Appreciable Gains? Examining Neighborhood Trajectories of Change and Crime in Southern California

• In Event: 408 - Visual Media Poster Presentation

Abstract

A common trend within neighborhood-level research suggests that neighborhoods tend to change gradually over time, which offers a degree of homeostasis and consistency for its residents. A growing body of scholarship suggests, however, how certain processes – such as macro-economic swings, ongoing gentrification, or population shifts – may contribute to some neighborhoods experiencing rapid and dramatic periods of change. The current study investigates how the changing economic context of neighborhoods, measured using home mortgage loan activity in neighborhoods from 1997 to 2010, affects crime rates over time. We use principle components and latent class analyses to identify unique, non-parametric trajectories of neighborhood change. Then, we include these trajectories in a change-score regression analysis to examine how processes of neighborhood change differentially affect violent and property crime rates over time.

Authors

• Nicholas Branic, University of California-Irvine

• John R. Hipp, University of California-Irvine