Territorial Disintegration in Syria: A Comparative-Historical Analysis of the 1982 and 2011 uprisings

• In Event: 571 - Section on Economic Sociology Roundtables (one-hour)
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 09. The Political Economy of Liberalization and Development

Abstract

In this paper, I argue that rapid growth in the flow of capital triggered by financial liberalization in the 2000s contributed to the high degree of territorial disintegration in Syria since 2011. To do so, I analyze and compare the disintegrative potential generated by demographic, economic, political and geopolitical factors prior to the 1982 uprising that resulted in the Hama Massacre and those prior to the 2011 uprising that resulted in the ongoing civil war in Syria. Despite its violence, the degree of territorial disintegration manifested by the 1982 uprising was much lower than that of the 2011 uprising. I show that favorable geopolitical conditions in the 1980s generated integrative potential that mitigated modest disintegrative potential generated by a growing population size and slow growing economy. In the 1990s, I show that integrative potential was generated by improving geopolitical conditions that benefited economic growth. This set up the stage for the rapid rise in disintegrative potential in the 2000s as financial liberalization eroded the political legitimacy of the Syrian regime.

Author

• Rebecca S.K. Li, College of New Jersey