Social Networks Influence on the Climate Change – Migration Association in Rural Mexico, 1986-99

• In Event: 287 - Regular Session. Immigrants and International Migration

Abstract

It has been argued that social networks as the ties connecting an origin and destination location may operate as “migration corridors” with the potential to strongly facilitate climate change related migration. The goal of this study was to investigate whether social networks at the household and community level facilitate or impedes the impact of climate change on international migration from rural Mexico. A set of 17 climate change indices suggested by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices was generated based on daily temperature and precipitation data for 214 weather stations across Mexico. Employing geostatistical interpolation techniques, the climate change values were linked to 68 rural municipalities for which socio-demographic data and detailed migration histories were available from the Mexican Migration Project. Multi-level discrete-time event-history models were used to investigate the effect of climate change on international migration during 1986-99. At the household level, the effect of social networks was approximated by comparing the first to the last move, assuming that through the first move a household establishes internal social capital. At the community level the impact of social capital was explored through interactions with a measure of the proportion of adults with migration experience. The results show that social capital declines the sensitivity of migration to climate triggers providing evidence against the notion that social networks may operate as “migration corridors”.

Authors

• Raphael J Nawrotzki, University of Colorado-Boulder

• Fernando Riosmena, University of Colorado-Boulder

• Lori M. Hunter, University of Colorado-Boulder

• Daniel M Runfola, College of William & Mary