A History of Identity: The Native and Part-Hawaiian Population of Hawai'i, 1780 to 2030

• In Event: 231 - Section on Sociology of Population Refereed Roundtable Session and Business Meeting
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: Table 07. Special Topics in U.S. Socio-Demographic Patterns and Inequalities

Abstract

A high level of uncertainty surrounds the size of the Hawaiian population at the time of first European contact in 1778. Estimates range from 200,000 to 1,000,000. While some estimates have more of an empirical base than others, none of them takes advantage of the high level of momentum found in demographic processes, something that is done in this paper using “backcasting,” a demographic forecasting method run in reverse from known data. Using a commonly used technique for this purpose, the 1910 count of Native Hawaiians by age in Hawaiʻi is taken back to 1770 in decennial cycles. Interpolating between the 1780 and 1770 estimates yields an estimated 683,200 Hawaiians in 1778. This set of estimates for Hawaiʻi is extended to include temporally and internally consistent decennial numbers from 1780 to 2030 for Native Hawaiians as well as Part Hawaiians by age. Some interesting transitions are discussed including a major shift from those who identified themselves as Part-Hawaiian in 1980 to identifying themselves as Native Hawaiian (alone) in 1990. This shift is not caused by demographic factors, which leads to a discussion of racial ðnic identity and changes therein.

Author

• David Swanson, Univeristy of California Riverside