Explaining Countermovement-Movement Interactions:How Islam Became a Rival of Ethnic Movement in Turkey, 1991-2002

• In Event: 054 - Regular Session. Collective Behavior: New Perspectives on Group Process

Abstract

Reactive groups adopt a variety of repertoires ranging from institutional resistance to violence to counter mobilizing efforts of movements. Countermovement studies provide many useful insights into how repression by private agents can constrain social movements’ success. Few studies however considered the possibility that repression may on the contrary facilitate the outcomes sought by the movement. Under what conditions do political killings of movement members and sympathizers affect support for the movement? To answer this question, we exploit the evolution of the Kurdish ethnic movement in Turkey as a movement party and track changes in the movement’s constituency in response to countermovement violence (1991-2002). The study uses an original dataset of countermovement killings by the ethnic movement’s Islamist rival, Hizbullah across 113 districts in thirteen southeastern provinces. We demonstrate that countermovement violence has non-uniform effects on electoral support to the movement party. These effects are conditional on initial movement strength: in localities with prior loyalties to the ethnic movement, Hizbullah-inflicted harm consolidates the movement party’s constituency. By contrast, countermovement violence is met with reduced support where the movement is weak and is struggling to make inroads to the community. Our findings suggest that movements operate in complex environments where political violence might play important roles in understanding movement outcomes.

Authors

• Cem Emrence, SUNY-Binghamton

• Aysegul Aydin, University of Colorado-Boulder