Networks of Legitimation and the Multiple Paths to Armed Conflict Recurrence

• In Event: 502 - Regular Session. Peace and Conflict. Exploring Conflict, Peacebuilding, and Peace.

Abstract

Since the end of World War II, intrastate conflicts have outpaced interstate conflicts by five to one, and increasingly the overwhelming majority of intrastate conflicts are recurrences of a previous conflict. However, scholarship on the causes of conflict recurrence is characterized by contradictions. In this research we situate these contradictions within multiple pathways to conflict recurrence. Combining a novel approach to the decomposition of regression coefficients and comparative historical analysis applied across 216 cases of intrastate conflict from 1946 to 2005, we show that the causes and dynamics of conflict recurrence follow four distinct causal pathways depending on whether the initial conflict ended with a government victory, rebel victory, peace agreement or ceasefire. Building on these findings, we engage recent literature emphasizing the role of legitimacy in affecting conflict recurrence. We show how turning attention to the relational dynamics of legitimation and the networks among actors engaged in conflicts allows enhanced understanding of the effects of legitimacy and illegitimacy on recurrence in light of the prevailing social and structural conditions following the initial conflict.

Authors

• Eric Schoon, The Ohio State University

• Ronald L. Breiger, University of Arizona

• David M. Melamed, The Ohio State University