The Low Fertility Trap in China: Fact or Fiction?

• In Event: 231 - Section on Sociology of Population Refereed Roundtable Session and Business Meeting
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: Table 05. Structural, Environmental, and Cultural Factors Affecting Fertility

Abstract

It has been held that China has encountered fertility trap, and thus should abolish the restrictive fertility policy and promote a policy encouraging childbearing. However, has China really fallen into fertility trap? This paper attempts to address this issue by situating China in historic and international contexts. Drawing on the conceptual framework of proximate and distal determinants of fertility, it compares marriage and fertility patterns among the Chinese, Korean, Japanese and American, and assesses the intertwined relationships of macro-level factors to fertility. Results indicate that China is still featured by universal and early marriage and childbearing, and distal factors have created the sense of anxiety of marriage and fertility, driving individuals to proceed to childbearing at a faster pace. Together with the tremendous urban-rural divide and regional disparities, it remains too early to conclude that China has encountered fertility trap, particularly in the context of a universal two-child policy.

Author

• Juhua Yang, Renmin University of China