Current and Future Demographics of the Veteran Population, 2014-2024

• In Event: 231 - Section on Sociology of Population Refereed Roundtable Session and Business Meeting
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: Table 08. Demographic Perspectives on Critical Social Issues Facing U.S. and Non-U.S. Populations

Abstract

There has not been a full national accounting of U.S. Veterans since the 2000 Census. We estimated the 2014 and 2024 population of Veterans using a cohort component population projection method at the Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA) level. Data for this analysis came from the U.S. Census for baseline national projections. We factored in estimates of mortality, adjusted for demographic characteristics, and added data from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) on Veterans entering the population. We estimated migration flows of Veterans using gravity models. Supplementary data came from American Community Surveys (ACS) and accounted for a variety of factors, including age, sex, race/ethnicity, service era, population size of sending and receiving areas, and distance between areas. We project that the population of U.S. Veterans will decrease by 19 percent over the next 10 years: from 21.6 million in 2014 to 17.5 million in 2024. We estimate that, geographically, the Veteran population will become more concentrated in urban areas, and the relative proportion of the Veteran population in the Ohio River Valley region will diminish. There will be modest changes in the demographic mix, by sex and race/ethnicity. Between 2014 and 2024, the proportion of female Veterans will increase 3 percentage points, from 8 to 11 percent. The share of non-Hispanic white males will decrease from 80 to 74 percent over the same period. Mean age will increase slightly; the population will have a higher proportion of both older and younger Veterans.

Authors

• Michael S. Pollard, RAND Corporation

• Ernesto F. L. Amaral, RAND Corporation

• Joshua Mendelsohn, RAND Corporation

• Matthew Cefalu, RAND Corporation

• Amii Kress, RAND Corporation

• Rachel Ross, RAND Corporation