One Flag, Two Rallies: Mechanisms of Public Opinion in Israel during the 2014 Gaza War

• In Event: 502 - Regular Session. Peace and Conflict. Exploring Conflict, Peacebuilding, and Peace.

Abstract

In Israel, public reaction to the 2014 Gaza war included massive support for the military operation and a sharp increase in the popularity of Prime Minister Netanyahu. To understand what caused these "rally-round-the-flag" effects, panel data were collected from a representative sample of the Jewish majority in Israel during and after the war. I integrate empirical and theoretical arguments from public opinion studies, and from social and political psychology, to contextualize and guide the analysis. The results reveal that perceived threat to collective security produced two simultaneous rally outcomes through distinct processes: First, increased identification with the ethno-national Jewish group led to a rally behind Israel's prime minister. Second, anger toward Hamas and sentiment of national superiority, which was activated by increased ethno-national identification, produced a rally behind the military operation.

Beyond proper understanding of rally processes in public opinion during war, the findings of this study have an important implication for pragmatic peacemaking: Whereas radical theories of peacemaking often focus on the importance of initiating mechanisms of reconciliation at the level of civil society the current findings show that ending the cycle of violence between Israeli and Palestinian armed organizations is a necessary pre-condition for the initiation of a deeper process of reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians.

Author

• Yuval Feinstein, University of Haifa