Spatial Excitation: Testing a Network Activation Theory of Rumor Transmission

• In Event: 579 - Section on Communication, Information Technologies, and Media Sociology Refereed Roundtable Session and Business Meeting
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: Table 07. Social Life of Information

Abstract

Individuals predominantly exchange information with one another through informal channels. During disasters and other disrupted settings, information spread through informal channels regularly outpaces official information provided by officials and the press. The network activation theory of rumor posits that during periods of disruption, individuals spread and receive information from those with whom they regularly interact. Instead of forging new ties for disseminating rumors, individuals rely on the most convenient and proximate of their existing ties. While social scientists have long recognized that interpersonal networks play an important role in this information propagation, studying rumoring in disrupted settings has posed numerous methodological challenges. Measuring features of informal communication--timing, content, location-with any degree of precision has historically been extremely challenging in small studies and infeasible at large scales. We address this challenge by using online, informal communication from a popular microblogging website and for which we have precise spatial and temporal metadata. We test network activation theory by determining if the spatial distribution of primary and/or secondary excitation in response to disaster follows expected tie volumes from the population at the event epicenter to the rest of the United States' population. We simulate tie volumes at the county level and relate those tie volumes among counties to nationwide, county-level rumoring activity in the aftermath of tornado events. Additionally, we use county-level demographics and tornado-event-related measures to determine if salience drives rumoring activity. The results provide insight into the mechanisms of rumoring behavior with spatial precision and scale that had long been infeasible.

Author

• Sean M. Fitzhugh, U.S. Army Research Laboratory