Unanswered Questions in Deterrence Theory: Crime-Specific Risk Updating and Behavioral Effects

• In Event: 033 - Section on Crime, Law, and Deviance Roundtable Session and Business Meeting
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: Table 12. Theoretical Criminology

Abstract

Deterrence theory describes an interpretive process that relies on two necessary linkages: 1) sanction experiences alter perceptions of offending risk and; 2) risk perceptions are related to offending behavior. The extant research has generally supported the central tenets of these propositions, but several important questions remain unanswered. First, it is not clear if the experience of an arrest leads to an increase in risk perceptions in general, or if the effects are limited to a specific offense (e.g., violence). Second, although scholars find a correlation between perceived risk and offending, researchers have not mapped changes in risk perceptions to changes in offending behavior (both frequency and type). This study uses the Pathways to Desistance Study to help fill these gaps. First, we examine if the risk updating process is crime-general or crime specific. Specifically, we assess whether relative differences in offending experiences between two crime types (violent and property) corresponds to relative differences in their sanction risk updating (i.e., a larger increase in perceptions of violent risk relative to property risk). Second, we use a multilevel latent trait model to examine if changes in risk perceptions result in changes in both the quantitative frequency of offending, and in the tendency to specialize in offending. The preliminary results indicate that individuals update their risk perceptions in a crime-specific way, suggesting that arrests may impact both the frequency of offending and the types of crimes that individuals commit. The implications for theory and policy are discussed.

Authors

• Kyle Thomas, University of Missouri-St. Louis

• Benjamin Hamilton, University of Missouri-St. Louis

• Thomas A Loughran, University of Maryland