We're Gonna Stop 'em Cold! How Errant Expectations Develop in Social Movement Groups

• In Event: 054 - Regular Session. Collective Behavior: New Perspectives on Group Process

Abstract

Groups of people consistently err in their expectations and predictions of the future. Why? Existing research on this question tends to take short-term, overly psychological approaches or long-term, institutionalization approaches to answering this question. This paper examines a middle temporal space. I show that errant expectations are an emergent property of groups that can develop relatively quickly without any traces of “irrationality” or “groupthink.” I further trace how this happens, illuminating three mechanisms that work together to produce overconfidence in outsized predictions: the minimization of negative information, the maximization of positive information, and the features of events themselves. I draw on several sources of qualitative data from a weeklong protest march to illustrate these outcomes and mechanisms. This research has implications for our understanding of collective action and organizations, especially how groups get things wrong even without deviant intent and why small groups from start-ups to social movement organizations rarely meet their own or others’ expectations.

Author

• Daniel Escher, University of Notre Dame