Prediction Circuits: Sociology of a So-called Market

• In Event: 118 - Section on Economic Sociology Refereed Roundtable Session and Business Meeting
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: Table 11. Fine Tuning Zelizer: Relational Work and Circuits

Abstract

Circuits of Commerce define exchange in human economies. Online political prediction ‘markets’ exhibit textbook circuit characteristics and require sociological concepts to understand and explain. Prediction circuits combine economic activities, specialized media, accounting systems, interpersonal relations, boundaries, and meanings to turn a multitude of perspectives and interpretations into a single estimate, in the form of a price, for the likelihood of an event. Success in these circuits requires social and cultural competences including but not limited to seeking out impartial evidence, utilizing risk tables, decoding jargon and separating good advice from manipulation. Unlike markets, prediction circuits impose fees that create boundaries between their bettors and sustain systematic positive biases. Prediction circuits act as sub-systems within larger circuits of power, functioning like the eyes on a body. Like sight provided by eyes, indications provided by political betting markets can be invaluable for planning large-scale behaviors in an otherwise unpredictable world.

Author

• Autumn Deer McClellan, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill