Marriage Formation and Economic Opportunity in the United States, 1970-2000

• In Event: 551 - Section on the Sociology of the Family. Gender, Work, and Family

Abstract

In this paper we assess the impact of changes in male and female economic opportunity on marriage formation in the United States since 1970. Our analysis capitalizes on a vast archive of restricted-access long-form census data currently in preparation by the Census Bureau. We investigate the relationship between economic opportunity and early marriage formation for non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic blacks by carrying out multi-level analysis of the effects of changes in local economic conditions on the marital status of 25-29 year-olds. For white men and white women, we find that male economic opportunity is positively associated with marriage and that female economic opportunity is negatively associated with marriage. These models account for about 33% of the change in the percent ever-married for white men between 1970 and 2000, and 44% of the change for white women. For black men and black women, we find that men’s economic opportunity is positively associated with marriage. Black women’s employment is associated with increased marriage, while higher earnings are associated with less marriage. Our models for African Americans do not explain any change in the percent ever-married.

Authors

• Catherine A. Fitch, University of Minnesota

• Sheela Kennedy, University of Michigan

• Michael Oakes, University of Minnesota

• Steven Ruggles, University of Minnesota