China’s Higher Education Expansion and the Timing of College-to-Work Transition: A Natural Experiment

• In Event: 1550 - Unequal Experiences of Higher Education

Abstract

This paper uses a natural experiment framework to examine the causal effect of China’s 1999 accelerated expansion of higher education on the timing of finding a first skilled job among college graduates. To test hypotheses derived from applying relevant theories to the China case, we set up a rigorous research design for a natural experiment. The analysis exploits the unique education and work history data of a nationally representative survey and estimates a causal inference model. We offer three major findings. First, the 1999 accelerated expansion of higher education causes a delayed timing of landing a skilled job among graduates from technical colleges while graduates from 4-year colleges are not affected. Second, family origins, social positions affecting childhood experience, and individual social positions remain significant in the sorting into college education before and after the education expansion acceleration. Third, above and beyond its negative effect on college education sorting, at-birth rural hukou status exerts a positive effect on the timing of finding a skilled job among technical college graduates. These findings shed new lights on the universal phenomenon of early adulthood and specific social inequality in China and suggest policy recommendations.

Authors

• Lingxin Hao, Johns Hopkins University

• Dong Zhang, Sun Yat-sen University, China