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Geographical Diffusion of Protests in China: Evidences from Social Media

Sun, August 12, 10:30 to 11:30am, Pennsylvania Convention Center, Floor: Level 100, 103B

Abstract

Protests often diffuse in time and space. Although the phenomenon has be noticed by social scientists for decades, there is no systematic evidence on how persistent the impact a protest can be, how far it can transmit in geography, and what factors determine the transmission speed. Exploiting a unique dataset of collective actions happened in China between 2014 and 2015, we find that the influence of a protest on future protests can last for around a week in the same location, and for four days in neighboring prefectures. This pattern is also most salient for labor protests. Furthermore, no evidence indicates that the spatial correlation between protests is driven by common shocks, or the transmission can go beyond the first degree neighbors. Prefectures with higher fiscal capacity are more likely to experience protest diffusion.

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