Perceptions of Political Opportunities and Social Movement Emergence

• In Event: 2483 - Section on Collective Behavior and Social Movements Refereed Roundtable Session
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: Table 15. Violence and Authoritarianism

Abstract

Abstract: Theories of political opportunity contend that for a social movement to emerge, there needs to be some level of political opening. More recent studies have shown that apart from structural political opportunities, signals of opportunity can also be conducive to the rise of social movements. In addition, literature has shown that in authoritarian settings, where structural political opportunities are rare or non-existent, perceptions of opportunity or transnational activist networks can compensate for the lack of opportunity structures. This paper uses data from ICEWS to compare the Iranian Green Movement with two similar episodes in Iranian history. Results show that subjective political opportunities, in the form of both signals sent by the regime, and threats against the regime by foreign governments, positively impacted the rise of the Iranian Green Movement. Moreover, even in periods of intense closing, subjective political opportunities were enough to make a social movement possible. Also, repression had a consistently positive impact on the rise of protest events.

Author

• Bashir Tofangsazi, Ohio State University