U.S. Cotton, British Economic Growth, and Slavery 1815-1860: A Cointegration Approach

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Abstract

This article explores the link between U.S. cotton production and British economic growth. I employ annual time series data of British cotton imports from the U.S. and British gross domestic product (GDP) from 1815 to 1860 to understand the relationship between cotton grown in the U.S. and concomitant GDP growth in Britain. I argue that U.S. cotton helped fuel British economic growth in the early 19th century. I employ bivariate autoregressive distributed lag cointegration models with bounds testing. I find that cotton imports from the U.S. are cointegrated with British GDP; this indicates there is a long-run, positive relationship between British GDP and cotton imports from the U.S. Additionally, I present descriptive data on cotton production, slave population, and Native American land cession treaties for southern U.S. states decennially from 1820 to 1860 to present some evidence that massive cotton production in the southern U.S. would not have been possible without ready access to Native lands or the transfer of slaves from traditional slaving locations (“old south”) to the new (“new south”) cotton regions.

Author

• Sam Abrahim Shirazi, State University of New York-Stony Brook