Out of Sight, Out of Mind: Geographic and Social Predictors of Flood Risk Awareness

• In Event: 1544 - Disasters

Abstract

The persistent gap in flood risk awareness in Canada, and elsewhere in North America, is a continual source of worry for researchers and emergency managers; many people living in at-risk places are simply unaware of risks and of their proximity to hazards. This study seeks to understand which residents were aware of flood risk, using unique representative survey data of Calgary residents living in the city’s flood-prone neighborhoods collected after the devastating and costly 2013 Southern Alberta Flood. The paper utilizes logistic regression models to analyze which residents were aware of risk to their homes and to their neighborhoods. Findings indicate that, in addition to various demographic predictors, many of the geographic predictors (including living in a designated Flood Fringe and the elevation of one’s home relative to the river) are significant predictors of awareness. Having a direct sight line to one of Calgary’s two rivers is also a significant predictor, suggesting that the visibility of hazards matters for flood risk perception, even after controlling for other important factors. Finally, the models indicate that several variables related to local, neighborhood-based social networks are significant as well. These findings indicate that both physical surroundings and social context are important for understanding risk awareness. The paper concludes by discussing the relevance for social science research on disasters and hazards, as well as for planners and emergency managers.

Authors

• Daran Gray-Scholz, Mount Royal University

• Tim Haney, Mount Royal University

• Pam MacQuarrie, Mount Royal University