Mobilization, Signaling and Focal Points: Mechanisms of Pact Emergence after Mass Uprisings

• In Event: 3454 - Political Contention and Transformation

Abstract

Pacts between political actors play a prominent role in peaceful transitions from authoritarian rule, but their emergence is poorly understood. Drawing on a case study of the prelude to Tunisia’s 2011 “roadmap agreement”, this article investigates how pacts emerge after a personalist regime collapses in the face of a revolutionary uprising. Strategic evaluation hypotheses illuminate the motivations of negotiators but lack specificity regarding the actors' interpretative processes, which can make the difference between agreement and conflict. I argue that agreement comes about when actors form a convergent view of their respective strengths, and that in the confusion of post-breakdown moments, public events, and in particular manifestations of demonstrative support, provide the primary yardstick actors use to evaluate this balance of power. Well-attended street mobilization 1. creates common knowledge about the capacity of the group 2. can focalize the stance of the mobilizing group, which allows it to overcome collective action problems, strengthens its bargaining position and provides cues to the solution of the bargaining problem. When a mobilization contest unambiguously favors one side, it encourages the weaker side to concede, facilitating agreement. The argument has broad implications for the study of bargaining, collective action, and political transitions.

Author

• Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, Yale University