Local immigration policy and crime: A county-level investigation in the United States

• In Event: 1407 - Immigrant Inclusion and Exclusion during the Trump and Obama Eras

Abstract

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has rolled out a series of programs in the past decade that expand efforts to detain and deport undocumented immigrants. There is little understanding, however, about whether and under what circumstances local implementation of immigration law, or protections against it, matter for public safety. Drawing from criminological theories on incapacitation and deterrence, the immigrant revitalization perspective, and legal cynicism, I test competing hypotheses on the relationship between local immigration policies and crime. Unique ICE data provides information on jurisdiction-level detainer policies from 2013-2016. I append this dataset with county level demographic and economic indicators from American Community Survey population estimates, Part I Index crime rates from the Uniform Crime Reports, and voting data from the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections. These data have information on 687 counties in the United States over four years (2013-2016). Multiple linear regression analysis of matched pairs show that the impact of sanctuary polices are most salient in areas with higher concentrations of Latinos and foreign born residents, net of disadvantage, residential instability, population size, racial/ethnic make up, and political liberalism. Additionally, a fixed-effects procedure provides evidence that burglary rates decrease within counties after sanctuary policies are implemented. I hypothesize that sanctuary policies reflect and reinforce immigrant political opportunities, therefore bolstering immigrant revitalization and facilitating access to economic and political resources needed to keep communities safe.

Author

• Marta Ascherio, University of Texas at Austin