Uneven ambitions: Explaining differences in mitigation commitments in Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)

• In Event: 2251 - Section on Environmental Sociology Roundtables (1 hour)
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: 8. Environmental Change: Cross-National Comparisons and Theoretical Frameworks

Abstract

Effective mitigation efforts, commensurate with the challenges of climate change, remain difficult to construct. A better understanding of the social conditions that promote large-scale mitigation would therefore be a high investigative priority. The creation of plans for intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) following the 2015 Paris COP provides an opportunity to understand the social conditions that foster thoroughgoing climate mitigation efforts. In this paper, we analyze why nations made varying levels of mitigation ambition commitments in their INDCs. To do this, we create a metric for measuring mitigation ambition based on the percent emission declines and the target years specified in nations’ INDCs. We find that nations that score highly on global indices of good governance and that have lower levels of income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) have made more ambitious pledges that should reduce emissions. We also find regional patterns of commitments. EU nations have made identical pledges that should reduce carbon emissions, while nations in the Middle East have made pledges that allow emissions to increase unabated. These findings reveal that stronger states that invest in public goods and enjoy high levels of economic equality commit to deliver collective benefits for all, like climate stabilization.

Authors

• Julia Flagg, Connecticut College

• Thomas K. Rudel, Rutgers University