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Opinion Leaders' Ideology Spectrum: Exploring unofficial opinions in authoritarian countries.
Sun, August 11, 10:30 to 11:30am, New York Hilton, Floor: Third Floor, Trianon BallroomAbstract
How to approach popular opinions in authoritarian countries with a tightly controlled media system? This paper argues that opinion leaders form an indispensable source of information and opinions in nondemocratic countries where formal media outlets are subject to intensive state control. Through public discussion, opinion leaders act as the major players in the public sphere who can set public agendas and shape public discourses. I identify the most popular 239 opinion leaders in Chinese social media and measures the ideological spectrum of these leaders using their network ties with 4 million social media users. Combining computational methods and close readings, I further analyze 1.28 million original posts produced by opinion leaders between 2009 and 2017. Evidence show that opinion leaders hold different attitudes toward the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), diverging between a constrain-CCP ideology associated with liberalism, and a strengthen-CCP ideology associated with nationalism and Maoism. Note this is different from the division between an anti- or pro-regime ideology, such that people may support or criticize the current regime on different grounds no matter they look to constrain or strengthen the power of the CCP. Additionally, while up to three-fourths of opinion leaders agree with constraining the ruling party, this pro-liberal camp is further divided between those who stress economic growth and those who are primarily concerned about social inequalities. Likewise, contested agendas emphasizing either growth or inequality also exist within the strengthen-CCP camp. In the end, five kinds of opinion leaders are identified, including fundamental democrats, social democrats, conservative democrats, nationalists, and Maoists.