The Squeaky Wheel Gets the Grease: The Role of Violent Civil Unrest in Global Social Assistance Provision

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Abstract

Social assistance programs have globally proliferated at an astonishing rate. To explain this trend, we statistically test factors associated with both ‘structuralist’ and ‘political’ welfare state theories on a sample of OECD and emerging market economies (EMEs). The results of the analysis indicate social assistance coverage has a significant positive relationship with riots. We explain this outcome as policy-makers expanding social assistance as a means of containing violent civil unrest. We also find the positive effects of violent civil unrest to be more significant in EMEs, raising concerns that the focus on structural explanations –at the expense of political factors which translate these structural effects into actual policies – may be a result of sample bias towards advanced welfare
states.

Authors

• Erdem Yoruk, Koc University

• Rahmi Cemen, University of Florida