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Why Emerging States Win in the Face of Greater Powers

Sun, August 11, 8:30 to 9:30am, New York Hilton, Floor: Third Floor, Trianon Ballroom

Abstract

Why was Mongolia successful in its efforts to gain political recognition from China as an independent state while Tibet, Taiwan, and Xinjiang failed? I argue that political opportunities, alignment of interests, timing, and external patronage created political recognition outcomes observed for Mongolia, Tibet, Taiwan, and Xinjiang. Recognition outcomes took multiple forms and included opportunities for recognition as well as whether or not a state government recognized these entities as independent states. More broadly, I argue that recognition outcomes for the cases in question are shaped by a larger political structure that I describe as the “opportunity structure for recognition.”

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