Forced to Move: Patterns and Predictors of Residential Displacement during an Era of Housing Insecurity

• In Event: 1451 - Community and Urban Sociology Section Roundtables (1 hour)
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: 6. Insecurities

Abstract

In recent decades, many Americans have experienced growing housing insecurity. Common manifestations of this include a high cost burden, doubling up, and frequent changes of address. Here we focus on residential displacement, which—aside from literal homelessness—arguably constitutes the most traumatic type of housing insecurity. Displacement refers to involuntary mobility, when a household must leave a dwelling unit against its will. The foreclosure crisis of the mid-2000s and Desmond’s ongoing investigation of eviction have prompted widespread interest in displacement. However, the phenomenon is far from new, first receiving scholarly attention during the 1960s as a byproduct of urban renewal and freeway construction projects. Subsequent studies have examined involuntary moves due to disinvestment, gentrification, and climate-related disasters.

Our research goal is to provide a conceptual and empirical update on residential displacement. We begin by discussing what the concept of displacement means and how its scope has evolved across research eras. Hypotheses about household characteristics linked to the likelihood of displacement are also reviewed. We then use recent mover data from the 2001 through 2013 rounds of the American Housing Survey to address three questions at a national scale. First, what impact do different operational definitions have on estimates of displacement? Second, are any trends in these estimates apparent during the study period, which was anchored by the Great Recession and featured substantial volatility? And third, which attributes of householders best predict displacement, variously defined and at different points in time?

Preliminary results indicate that the risk of being displaced, though low, roughly doubles when foreclosure-induced moves are included. The base displacement rate peaked in 2007, dipped, then rose again by 2013. Regardless of year, renting (+), education (-), poverty status (+), and young adulthood (-) remain the householder characteristics most consistently associated with displacement.

Authors

• Barrett Lee, Pennsylvania State University

• Megan Evans, The Pennsylvania State University