Family Influences on Fertility: An Extended Family Causal Estimate

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  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: 6. Family Choices in Context

Abstract

Despite the importance attributed to the family in shaping individuals’ fertility choices, there is little causal evidence supporting it. In this paper, I exploit the random variation of sex at birth and the preference for offspring sex-mix to propose a three-generation estimation of extended family influences on fertility. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), I define the extended family as grandparents, their adult children, and their grandchildren. I then show that if the first two grandchildren are of the same-sex, then the overall extended family is more likely to have more than two grandchildren than if the sex-mix is achieved within the first two grandchildren. This result is consistent across family structures, i.e. if the first two grandchildren are cousins or siblings, and it is robust to alternative sex-related mechanisms and characteristics of the middle and older generation. This novel three-generation estimation allows for cross-generation interactions, thus expanding our framework of analysis while providing a causal interpretation.

Author

• Federica Querin, Princeton University