Climate Change, Civil Society, and Democracy

• In Event: 2251 - Section on Environmental Sociology Roundtables (1 hour)
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: 20. Sociology of Disasters

Abstract

A controversial concern in climate change study is the climate politics debate. Extreme weather events related to climate change either damage political stability and cause human conflict, or alternatively cause civil society to organize relief actions to save human lives. This study found that extreme weather events shift the power balance in favor of civil society, and thus increase the likelihood of democratization from authoritarian rule and reduce the likelihood of political violence. When climate disasters damage a country with a weak civil society, or an authoritarian regime suppresses the postdisaster mobilization of civil associations, it fuels political violence. Hypotheses are tested linking climate change, strength of civil society, and the probabilities of democratization and of political violence. Through integration of climate data and social indicators from 128 countries during 1980–2013, we reveal that climate disasters mobilize civil society to increase the likelihood of democratic transition and reduce the likelihood of armed conflict.

Authors

• Thung-hong Lin, Academia Sinica

• Shih-Yu Lee, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica

• Ya-Hsuan Chou, Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica