No MAS: Who said "No" to Evo?

• In Event: 2323 - Student Forum Refereed Roundtable
  In Refereed Roundtable 100min: 5. Interrogating Social Action and Political Leadership II

Abstract

Political sociologists have spent more time investigating how charismatic leaders gain support than how they lose it. How do charismatic leaders espousing decolonization and a new national identity maintain support and under what conditions do voters begin to shift allegiances? Which factors (economic, environmental, democratic commitments, ethnoracial identity, among others), drive voters to abandon a charismatic leader? These questions motivate a study of contemporary Bolivian politics. In 2005, Juan “Evo” Morales was elected president of Bolivia with the largest popular support in the history of the country’s democratic regime. This was followed by larger margins of victory in the following two successive national elections (2009 and 2014). In 2009, with a majority in the legislature, the country underwent constitutional reform implementing term limits (maximum two consecutive terms), protections for the environment and formally shifting from a Republic to a “Pluri-national” state in recognition of the indigenous groups in the country. In 2016, the ruling party called for a national referendum, the 21F, to amend the constitution so Evo could run again. The measure lost 51 - 49.
To many, the referendum results prove that the overwhelming support Morales once held is waning and the coalition is fracturing. This paper looks to study those who have shifted their position. Using data from a nationally representative survey in Bolivia, it compares voters who previously supported Morales with those who continue to support him. In depth interviews with current and former supporters in La Paz allow for a qualitative understanding of why some people, including former party insiders, have shifted positions. In doing so, the study contributes to our understanding of “stayers” and “movers” in elections. Beyond Bolivia, the study will help us to better understand what factors inform electoral loyalty and fracture among citizens in the developing world.

Author

• Jonathon Acosta, Brown University