Ideology and Certainty in Economics

• In Event: 1555 - Section on Science, Knowledge, and Technology Refereed Roundtables (1 hour)
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: 6. Sociology of Knowledge: How Fields and Domains Reach Consensus and Solve Problems

Abstract

Among the social sciences, economics holds a uniquely powerful position of influence in both local and global affairs. Some scholars have argued that economics is particularly suited to guiding policymakers because the discipline shares high internal consensus around a core theoretical paradigm and methodological framework which produce cumulative and empirically-testable knowledge. However, a competing strand of scholarship argues that the professional opinions of top economists are shaped by deep ideological commitments, either to free markets on one hand or state regulation on the other, and that these ideological commitments result in deep divisions on major, policy-relevant topics. In this paper we advance our understanding of the role of ideology in economics by examining the relationship between economists’ ideological commitments and the certainty with which they express in their expert opinions. To investigate this question, we analyze data from IGM Economic Experts Panel, a unique survey of 51 economists at seven elite universities across the United States. Our results suggest that economists with ideologically-patterned views report higher levels of certainty in their opinions than their non-ideological counterparts. However, this boost in confidence is limited to topics that pertain to the free market vs. regulation debate.

Authors

• Austin Kozlowski, University of Chicago

• Tod Stewart Van Gunten, University of Edinburgh