Live births and Fertility Decline amidst the Zika Epidemic in Brazil

• In Event: 1232 - Fertility and Technology

Abstract

In late 2015, the Brazilian Ministry of Health classified the increase in congenital malformations associated with the Zika Virus (ZIKV) a public health emergency, while PAHO/WHO urged women to avoid or postpone pregnancy. The risk of ZIKV-related congenital syndrome posed an exogenous threat to reproductive outcomes that could result in declining numbers of live births and potentially fertility. Using 2010-2017 monthly microdata on live births from the Brazilian Information System on Live Births, this paper examines whether exposure to the risk of microcephaly is associated with declines in live births amidst the ZIKV epidemic in Brazil. Findings suggest a decline in live births that is stratified across SES and geographic lines, especially nine months after the call for pregnancy postponement. Further findings using a double fixed effects methodology on monthly live births by municipality suggest that the epidemic resulted in a significant decline in live births even when controlling for characteristics of the municipality through double fixed effects. The findings highlight the importance of understanding how exposure to the risk of a health threat directed at fetuses has led to declines in live births.

Authors

• Leticia Marteleto, University of Texas at Austin

• Gilvan Guedes, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

• Raquel Zanatta Coutinho, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

• Abigail Weitzman, University of Texas