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Changes in Adolescent Fertility and the Fracking Boom
Tue, August 11, 8:30 to 10:10am PDT (8:30 to 10:10am PDT), Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Floor: 6th Floor, Nob Hill 6Abstract
Using a restricted detailed natality file from the National Center for Health Statistics, I analyze the impact of the oil and gas hydraulic fracturing boom in North Dakota and Montana on adolescent fertility rates. Difference-in-differences models demonstrate a positive and significant association between the oil boom and increased births in teens aged 15-19. Comparative interrupted time series regression on the bust in oil prices of 2015 demonstrate a sizable year-over-year decrease in adolescent fertility for the shale region. Fertility changes do not appear attributable to changing racial or ethnic composition of oil-producing counties. Possible mechanisms that account for the effect include increased median income and increased proportion of men aged 18-34.