Contingency Precluded: Elite Constitutionalists and the Unmaking of Crisis in the Xinhai Revolution

• In Event: 50460 - Section on Comparative-Historical Sociology Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 6: Contingency and Particularity

Abstract

The notion of contingency is often evoked in the study of historical episodes of crisis, where unexpected and disruptive events dissolve established causality and plunge actors into radical uncertainty (Ermakoff 2015). The Xinhai Revolution of 1911, which abruptly ended over two millennia of imperial rule in China, is widely regarded as an unexpected moment, seemingly exemplifying a contingent crisis. This paper examines whether the Xinhai Revolution aligns with the framework of contingency as articulated in recent sociological scholarship.
Focusing on national Constitutionalist elites in Beijing, this study draws on primary sources, including diaries and meeting records, to analyze their responses during the revolution’s critical 120 days. The analysis reveals that despite the unexpected and rapidly escalating events of the Xinhai Revolution, these elite Constitutionalists did not experience the collective indeterminacy or uncertainty typically associated with contingent dynamics. Instead, they adhered to a fixed script in their responses, guided by an unchanging goal even as evolving circumstances made it increasingly unattainable.
This paper traces the origins of this script to an ongoing power contention between the elite Constitutionalists and agents of the old imperial regime that began years prior to the revolution that deeply influenced the mindset of the elite Constitutionalists during the revolutionary period. Particularly, it led them to interpret unfolding events as opportunities to seize power from imperial agents, rather than systemic challenges to the existing social and political order. As such, their scripted solutions were not strategies for addressing the revolutionary crisis itself but tools for advancing their position in the ongoing power struggle. This case shows that crises do not inherently induce contingent dynamics; instead, actors’ interpretations of crisis are deeply influenced by power struggles and institutional contexts. The Xinhai Revolution therefore provides a negative case that helps refine the necessary conditions under which contingent dynamics occur.

Author

• Siying Fu, University of Wisconsin-Madison