Explaining Heterogeneity in Migration Aspirations in Lower Income Countries

• In Event: 20862 - Section on International Migration Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 2: Migration Aspirations and Decision-Making

Abstract

Neoclassical theory predicts that the greatest incentive to migrate will be concentrated in countries with the lowest incomes, where the potential gains to migration are the greatest. However, empirical research supporting this proposition is mixed, and many lower income countries appear to have much lower migration aspirations than neoclassical theory would suggest. The current study examines the Gallup World Poll, a globally representative survey, to better understand migration aspirations, or lack thereof, in lower income countries. First, we demonstrate that while GDP per capita is negatively correlated with migration aspirations, the correlation is not as strong as neoclassical theory might predict, is even weaker among poorer countries, and is not statistically significant for these lower income countries when controlling for a variety of country-level factors. Moreover, this lack of statistical significance is explained in part by a large variation in aspirations among lower income countries, more than twice the standard deviation of higher income countries. In other words, lower income countries have a large range of aspirations, from under 10% in the bottom decile, to over 40% in the top decile. Among these lower income countries, the strongest predictors of higher migration aspirations are higher child mortality, higher homicide rates, and surprisingly, lower levels of income inequality. Lower overall GDP as well as higher intergenerational mobility, population density, damage/deaths from natural disasters, migrant networks abroad, and unemployment rates also predict higher aspirations. Interestingly, countries with higher levels of political repression have lower aspirations, suggesting either concerns about honest reporting or limited understanding of the opportunities afforded by migration. Going forward, we will examine how these factors may impact respondent attitudes toward their country and ultimately migration aspirations via structural equation modeling. These results have implications for our understanding of migration aspirations and relevant policies.

Authors

• Christopher Maggio, University of Illinois Chicago

• Sarah Iverson, American University