Polarization and National Beliefs in the U.S.: Shifting Dynamics Across the Trump and Biden Eras

• In Event: 30268 - Political Identities and Ideologies in the United States

Abstract

Increasing political polarization and the rise of populist authoritarian politicians are interconnected phenomena that have drawn significant research attention. In the U.S., since the early 2000s, partisan affiliation has become increasingly tied to national beliefs, contributing to Donald Trump’s 2016 rise (Bonikowski, Feinstein, and Bock 2021). This study examines two key questions: (1) Is the growing link between party affiliation and national beliefs due to individuals switching parties to align with their ideology, or are partisans adopting their party’s national beliefs? (2) Has this relationship remained stable or shifted over the past decade? We collected panel survey data during the last three U.S. presidential elections.

We applied Latent Transition Analysis to track shifts between the four nationalism types identified by Bonikowski and DiMaggio (2016): Ardent, Restrictive, Creedal, and Disengaged. We examined partisan transitions in two ways: by categorizing individuals as Republican, Democrat, or Independent to track party shifts and by using a seven-point scale to capture intra-party changes. We find different patterns during Trump’s and Biden’s presidencies. Changing nationalism within a party was as common as switching parties while keeping nationalism in the earlier period, but aligning beliefs with one’s party was twice as likely in the latter. Under Trump, polarization increased as restrictive nationalists aligned with the GOP (a stronghold of Ardent nationalists), while strong Democrats aligned with disengaged nationalists, and Creedal nationalists shifted toward weaker partisan ties or independence. Under Biden, polarization took two forms: Republicans solidified as the party of restrictive nationalists, while Democrats fragmented as disengaged nationalists grew disillusioned and weakened their ties, possibly contributing to Trump’s return. Our study highlights the need to move beyond broad terms like “polarization” and examine the complex, dynamic interplay between national beliefs and political loyalties—recognizing that these beliefs and affiliations remain fluid for many.

Authors

• Yuval Feinstein, University of Haifa

• Bart Bonikowski, New York University

• Gal Yadlin, University of Haifa