A woman-centered theory for fertility declines for modern times

• In Event: 40861 - Section on Sociology of Population Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 1: Fertility and Social Change

Abstract

We propose a theoretical framework to explain fertility declines over the past two centuries around the world. The framework suggests that low-fertility countries already entered and will persist in a fertility equilibrium in the foreseeable future. What distinguishes our theoretical framework from the previous ones is the centrality of women in our model. The woman has a different interest in fertility decisions from others including her male partner. In most human history, her input in fertility decisions was minimal. As the premodern regime begins to crumble, women gradually become aware of other life choices and obtain reproductive autonomy. These changes inevitably lead to falls in fertility. The falls are ultimately driven by the push for broad gender equality and would continue and not be permanently reversed until they meet pronatalistic forces in a below-replacement environment where the antinatalistic and pronatalistic forces balance out into a fertility equilibrium.

Authors

• Guang Guo, UNC Chapel Hill

• Zhenhuan Fang