Understanding the Formation of Migration Aspirations: The Role of Migrant Networks in Cross-Border Migration Aspiration

• In Event: 30425 - New Forms of Transnationalism in Action

Abstract

This study investigates how migrant network effects influence the formation of international migration aspirations differently across micro and contextual levels. Using the Gallup World Poll, I analyze whether personal social ties or migrant communities influence migration aspirations across more than 160 countries. At the micro level, logistic regression results indicate that social ties providing financial assistance from abroad increase migration aspirations, whereas reliable social ties reduce them. At the contextual level, a directional network of migration aspirations—where nodes represent countries and edges indicate the number of aspirations toward specific destinations—is analyzed using an Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM). The results suggest that pre-existing migrant communities contribute to the formation of migration aspirations between countries over the following five years. Additionally, evidence of hierarchy within the migration aspiration network was found, highlighting a distinction between sending and receiving countries. These findings suggest that migrant networks can have cumulative causal effects on migration aspirations at both the micro and contextual levels. However, whether they foster or suppress migration aspirations depends on the type of connections they provide.

Author

• Heejo Lee, Penn State University