Expanding the Racial Threat Hypothesis: Structural Pathways of Resentment, Partisanship, and Policy Opposition

• In Event: 41052 - Electoral Politics

Abstract

This study aims to better understand the role of racial resentment, negative partisanship, and conservative political affiliation in informing voter preferences on community infrastructure investment. While existing research has linked measures of racial resentment to community investment policy opposition among majority racial groups, this analysis considers the roles of potential mediating variables—negative partisanship (the growing pattern of voter behavior based on political opposition rather than personal investment) and conservative political affiliation—in patterns of voter behavior in response to growing racial minority groups. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), a powerful computational method for examining complex, multifaceted relationships, we test whether racial resentment functions as a direct driver of policy opposition or acts through the mediating factors of negative partisanship and conservative affiliation. By modeling both direct and mediated pathways, this study aims to clarify how ideological and affective factors intersect in shaping political attitudes towards community investment in the context of green energy and climate change mitigation. The findings will offer new insights into how racial attitudes, partisan conflict, and ideological identity contribute to policy opposition, with implications for understanding voter behavior and crafting effective public policies in a polarized political climate.

Authors

• Thomas Anthony Frost, New Mexico State University

• Heather Harper, New Mexico State University

• Mackenzie Brooklyn Dybvik, New Mexico State University