Homeownership and Fertility Attitudes: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment in Hong Kong

• In Event: 50261 - Family Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 3: Fertility Intentions

Abstract

A growing body of literature has explored the effects of homeownership on fertility attitudes and behaviors, yet findings remain inconclusive, partly due to the endogeneity of homeownership and the contextual factors influencing its perceived advantages. This study provides causal evidence on how homeownership affects the ideal number of children in Hong Kong. Using data from the fourth wave of the Hong Kong Panel Study of Social Dynamics (HKPSSD) conducted in 2017/18, Leveraging data from the fourth wave of the Hong Kong Panel Study of Social Dynamics (HKPSSD) conducted in 2017/18, I employ a quasi-experimental approach utilizing Hong Kong’s Home Ownership Scheme, a government initiative offering subsidized homeownership through a randomized lottery. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates reveal a negative association between homeownership and fertility desires. However, after addressing potential endogeneity through instrumental variable (IV) estimates, this negative association becomes marginally significant. Subgroup analysis further indicates that the negative effect is particularly pronounced among younger, less educated, and married individuals. In addition, living conditions, as measured by the number of rooms, consistently have a positive effect on fertility intentions in both OLS and IV estimations. These findings provide valuable insights for policies and support programs aimed at enhancing fertility intentions in Hong Kong.

Author

• Jia Miao, New York University Shanghai