Moving target: Spatial mobility networks, extra-local firearm exposure, and US gun homicides between 2005-2019

• In Event: 30662 - Section on Crime, Law, and Deviance Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 4: Violence/ Fear of Crime

Abstract

Firearm violence is a widespread and persistent problem in the US. Drawing on research showing that violence may “spill over” across space, we examined the role of human mobility in facilitating access and exposure to firearms. We measure extra-local exposures as a function of dyadic commuting flows between counties based on the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data, and measured across three time periods: 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2019 (N=7,311 county-periods nested within in 2,437 US counties). Results from multilevel and fixed effects negative binomial models showed that local firearm homicide rates were associated with extra-local firearm prevalence not only in geographically proximate areas but, importantly, in socially connected places, linked through routine human mobility networks. The effects of extra-local exposures were especially strong in counties with low local gun prevalence that might otherwise be expected to have low risk. Our findings highlight the need for policymakers to consider not only geography but also social connections between places when implementing interventions aimed at mitigating violence through reduced access to firearms. High extra-local access to firearms may undermine the protective benefits of low local access, and prevention efforts implemented in highly connected places may extend their benefits to communities far across their mobility networks.

Authors

• Christopher H. Seto, Purdue University

• Corina Graif, Pennsylvania State University