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Given the unclear role of education in shaping group-level trajectories of alcohol use patterns, this study uses a U.S. population sample aged 24 to 61 from the 1989-2018 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort to identify distinct trajectories of alcohol use patterns and examine the effect of education on these trajectories. Specifically, alcohol use patterns in this study include alcohol use, heavy drinking, alcohol use days, and total alcohol/drinks consumption. Group-based trajectory models are employed to identify distinct subgroups that exhibit similar alcohol use patterns over time. Additionally, multinomial logistic regression is conducted to assess the association between education and these trajectories.
Among the 10,913 individuals included in this study, a four-group trajectory model was identified as the optimal fit. These four trajectory groups were characterized as follows: (1) a low-risk, predominantly abstinent group (Group 1: 33.2%, low stable use), (2) stable moderate drinkers with low levels of heavy drinking (Group 2: 39.6%, moderate declining use), (3) individuals with increasing drinking frequency but moderate overall consumption (Group 3: 13.2%, high increasing use), and (4) persistently high-risk drinkers with sustained heavy consumption (Group 4: 14.1%, high stable use) from early to late adulthood. Multinomial logistic regression analysis reveals that educational attainment significantly influences trajectories of alcohol use patterns. Compared to Group 1, individuals with higher education are more likely to belong to Group 2 but less likely to be in Group 4 relative to those with less than a high school education. While the effect of education on Group 3 s weaker, it remains significant. In contrast, higher education substantially reduces the likelihood of belonging to Group 4 compared to Group 1. Furthermore, men are more likely to belong to Group 4 compared to Group 1, whereas Black populations have a lower probability of being in Group 4.