Everybody Moves: Climate, Networks, and Mobility in Honduran Communities

• In Event: 21064 - Environment, Climate Change, and Mobility

Abstract

Migration in central America is a process driven by a variety of economic, environmental, and social network drivers. We model internal and international mobility at the individual level in Honduras, emphasizing the different processes that drive each mode. These models describe the effect of network structure and climate conditions on each mode of mobility. We use longitudinal data from a set of 175 isolated villages (N = 24,646). We conduct analysis with a set of logistic regression models and find that the drivers of international and internal migration in Honduras diverge. While international migration has a highly selective profile that matches mobility patterns from other parts of central America, network structure prior to observed migration is not associated with international mobility. Communities that experience dangerous temperatures for agriculture tend to exhibit lower levels of international mobility. On the other hand, network structure is a strong driver of internal mobility from our Western Honduran communities. For this mode of mobility, we find that climate and agriculture practices have little effect, and that migrant profiles are very different than for international migration. These results highlight that many processes contribute to migration in Central America and highlight the complex interactions between network drivers of mobility and climate conditions.

Authors

• Loring J. Thomas, Princeton University

• Ziang Xu, Yale University

• Vahid Satarifard, Yale University

• Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University

• Nicholas A Christakis, Yale University