Divorce as a turning point: Trajectory stratification in employment, remarriage, and welfare histories among US women.

• In Event: 50466 - Public Policies, Family Dynamics and Well-being

Abstract

When individuals face major life disruptions, do existing inequalities persist or widen over time? This study introduces the concept of “trajectory stratification” to explain how post-disruption institutional pathways transform initial resource differences into growing economic disparities. Using divorce as a critical case, the study examines how women’s engagement with employment, remarriage, and welfare support influences their likelihood of welfare receipt—a key indicator of economic vulnerability in the U.S. welfare state. Drawing on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 Cohort, the analysis combines sequence analysis with g-computation using machine learning to identify and estimate the causal effects of post-divorce trajectory types. Results demonstrate that trajectories amplify initial inequalities through two mechanisms: Women with greater pre-divorce resources are more likely to follow trajectories of stable employment and remarriage, which most effectively prevent future welfare receipt. Additionally, these advantageous trajectories provide stronger protective effects for women with higher initial resources, while disadvantageous trajectories involving unemployment, remaining divorced, and welfare receipt increase economic risks most acutely for those with fewer resources. This pattern of trajectory stratification offers new insights into how institutional arrangements transform momentary disruptions into durable economic disparities.

Author

• Nanum Jeon, University of California-Los Angeles